S&P 500 Daily Perspective for Thu 22 Jun 2023

Near-term bear case reaffirmed on lower value

Jun 21, 2023

GDR Model Performance

This year has been challenging for the GDR Model’s style due to low confidence in the market.

GDR Model Outlook

The GDR Model is now bullish following the recent breakout from consolidation, but it has flagged some deterioration in the market since the start of this week.

GDR Model Position

The GDR Model is currently holding a long position on the market’s strength.

S&P 500 Futures Market Profile Analysis

Near-Term Outlook: bearish on poor low and lower value

Alternate Outlook: short-term balance, consolidation

Key Levels

Bullish: 4431 (Excess Low), 4451 (Closes Gap Down), 4462 (6/16 Spike-like Base)
Bearish: 4404 (Poor Low), 4378 (Bottom of Current Balance Zone), 4369 (6/12 Spike Base)

Market Narrative

There hasn’t been a material change from yesterday’s outlook, except the bearish near-term outlook has been reaffirmed. While Tuesday’s poor low was repaired, yesterday left behind a lower poor low. More importantly, yesterday’s value is entirely lower compared to Tuesday’s. The base case is still for a test the balance zone low at around 4378.

It seems fairly unlikely that the market might take-off higher again from here so the second most likely outlook is for the market to trade in a short-term balance for some time. Do keep in mind that the Fed Chair’s testimony on monetary policy to Congress beginning today can add volatility to the market.

Economic Calendar

4:00am - FOMC Member Waller Speaks
8:30am - Initial Jobless Claims
9:55am - FOMC Member Bowman Speaks
10:00am - Fed Chair Powell Testifies on Monetary Policy, Existing Home Sales
Later this Week: none notable