S&P 500 Daily Perspective for Wed 21 Jun 2023

Bearish, good odds to retest balance zone low

Roger

Jun 20, 2023

GDR Model Performance

This year has been challenging for the GDR Model’s style due to low confidence in the market.

GDR Model Outlook

The GDR Model is now bullish following the recent breakout from consolidation.

GDR Model Position

The GDR Model is currently holding a long position on the market’s strength.

S&P 500 Futures Market Profile Analysis

Near-Term Outlook: bearish on unfilled gap down and poor low

Alternate Outlook: short-term balance, consolidation

Key Levels

Bullish: 4451 (Closes Gap Down), 4462 (6/16 Spike-like Base), 4470 (Top of Current Balance Zone)
Bearish: 4410 (Poor Low), 4378 (Bottom of Current Balance Zone), 4369 (6/12 Spike Base)

Market Narrative

Yesterday the market opened on a gap down that failed to fill despite the late day rally. Moreover, the day’s low from mid-morning is poor. These two references along with the recent failed breakout from the current balance zone paint a fairly bearish near-term picture. I would suspect that the market will try to test the balance zone low at around 4378.

It seems fairly unlikely that the market might take-off higher again from here so the second most likely outlook is for the market to trade in a short-term balance for some time. Do keep in mind that the Fed Chair’s testimony on monetary policy to Congress beginning today can add volatility to the market.

Economic Calendar

10:00am - Fed Chair Powell Testifies on Monetary Policy
Later this Week: Fed Chair Powell Testifies on Monetary Policy (Thu)