S&P 500 Futures Daily Insights for Fri 25 Nov 2022
GDR Model remains Bullish, market structure suggests further upside
GDR Model Insights for the Current Week
GDR Model Performance (2022): +26.97%
Market Tone: Bullish (previous week: Potential Transition to Bullish)
Positioning: +238.47% Long (previous day: +242.70% Long)
Commentary: GDR Model remains definitively in Bullish mode.
S&P 500 Market Structure Insights for Tomorrow
As expected, the Globex session(s) for today were thinly traded within tight ranges. As a recap, there are 3 trapped short positions from Tuesday’s trend day. Wednesday was another up day that allowed for inventory correction in the early afternoon. Importantly, the day ended with a double top, which is considered a Poor High. This Poor High is also Weak as it coincides with the Non-Excess High made in the day session on 15 Nov. This suggests weak-hands, momentum traders were selling this exacting level.
While today’s Globex traded almost entirely above yesterday’s high, due to the low levels of activity and participation we don’t consider it as having taken out the Poor High from yesterday. Moreover, while there the US market is open tomorrow, it is only for a half day and we recommend considering that as part of the overnight session unless there is (unexpectedly) significant participation.
Further upside remains most likely for the time being, which is in line with seasonality. However, bear in mind that more often than not, price gains during the latter half of Thanksgiving week are given back early in the week that follows.
Potential Market-Moving Events Tomorrow
01:00pm - Thanksgiving Holiday Early Close