S&P 500 Futures Daily Insights for Tue 29 Nov 2022
GDR Bullish idea is being challenged yet again while Market Structure points to further near-term downside
GDR Model Insights for the Current Week
GDR Model Performance (2022): +22.20%
Market Tone: Bullish (previous week: Bullish)
Positioning: +249.77% Long (previous day: +238.68% Long)
Commentary: GDR’s Bullish idea is being tested again. This is entirely within the bounds of expectation for a Bullish trending market and the key is how the week ultimately unfolds.
S&P 500 Futures Market Structure Insights for Tomorrow
In last night’s update I highlighted that “Holding above this Balance Zone will be key tomorrow for further upside.” Today’s trading opened back within the previous Balance Zone and attempted to break out of it, but failed leaving an Excess High behind. The ES then had a trend day down before leaving a Poor Low that is also Weak by the close. These markers imply that tomorrow has very high odds of further downside.
While market structure clearly points near-term Bearish, there are some Bullish markers; the most recent Swing High was made in the overnight session, today’s High is Weak as it coincides with the High of the Balance Zone and the poor structure left behind on the 11/22 trend day up has been repaired. Despite all this, the market seems set to at least taking a short breather from further upside.
Potential Market-Moving Events Tomorrow
09:00am - S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index
10:00am - CB Consumer Confidence