S&P 500 Daily Perspective for Mon 23 June 2025

GDR Model Performance

Please see the Performance page for more detailed performance numbers, how they’re calculated, and a chart.

For the fine print (a.k.a. the lawyer-approved stuff), don’t miss the Disclaimers section—it’s where all the “officially important” bits live!

GDR Model Outlook

Overall Outlook (as of 20 Jun 2025): BULLISH TO NEUTRAL. The market’s recent uptrend remains somewhat under threat, but last week’s close gave some hope for further upside…

Fundamentals Outlook (as of 17 Jun 2025): Fair Value. The model has adjusted valuations slightly downward following the release of new data. Going forward GDR Model positioning should tactically tilt a little less towards the long side, all else equal. Note that this is just a barometer to help guide longer-term decision-making rather than short-term market timing.

IMPORTANT NOTE: it’s unknown what the impact of tariffs on valuations (or what the ultimate level of the tariffs themselves) will actually be on valuations. Rather than make tariff-related assumptions to adjust the model accordingly, the Fundamentals Outlook will remain fully data-driven as it’s always been. All other portions of the model are entirely unaffected.

Long-Term Outlook (as of 20 Jun 2025): Bullish. The market remains strong from a long-term perspective, but last week barely closed on a strong note.

Short-Term Outlook (as of 20 Jun 2025): Bullish. The short-term outlook is back to bullish, but like the long-term outlook, Friday’s close was barely positive.

Breadth Outlook (as of 20 Jun 2025): Neutral. Usually a brief drop to neutral isn’t of note, but given that the long outlook showed noticeable weakness last Friday and that the short-term outlook is starting to deteriorate, there is a non-zero chance this could turn into something.

Volatility Outlook (as of 20 Jun 2025): Shaky. The volatility outlook has breached into an area that allows for deeper sell-offs. Note that normally a rating of shaky or volatile needs to be sustained for several days for a more significant liquidation to actually materialize.

GDR Model Position

At the recent sign of strength, the GDR Model has opted to reopen an aggressive long position…