S&P 500 Daily Perspective for Wed 19 Mar 2025

GDR Model Performance

Please see the Performance page for more detailed performance numbers, how they’re calculated, and a chart.

For the fine print (a.k.a. the lawyer-approved stuff), don’t miss the Disclaimers section—it’s where all the “officially important” bits live!

GDR Model Outlook

The GDR Model is bearish to neutral. The serious sell-off the model has been pointing towards for weeks is now well underway. However, there is some nascent strength in the market, which, if sustained could lead a market recovery. The Fed day tomorrow can make a decisive impact on the model’s outlook.

Fundamentals Outlook (as of 10 Mar 2025): the valuation portion of the model has dropped back down to fair value after many months, which implies valuations are more attractive now. Note that this is just a barometer to help guide longer-term decision-making rather than short-term market timing.

Long-Term Outlook (as of 14 Mar 2025): the long-term outlook remains bearish, but had a strong close last week.There has been persistent weakness over the long-term timeframe and the market is unlikely to fully recover until this weakness gives way to renewed strength. Could last week’s strength show followthrough?

Short-Term Outlook (as of 18 Mar 2025): the short-term outlook is neutral but closed weak. For the market to decisively recover, the recent strength has to be sustained for several days.

Breadth Outlook (as of 18 Mar 2025): breadth remains neutral, but for now it does not change the overall read of the model.

Volatility Outlook (as of 18 Mar 2025): the volatility outlook is downgraded back to shaky, however given that tomorrow is a Fed day this probably doesn’t carry as much meaning as it normally would.

GDR Model Position

The GDR Model has a modest long position. This still falls in the camp of tactical positioning rather than a change in sentiment - the model still reads the market as being mostly bearish.