S&P 500 Daily Perspective for Fri 25 Apr 2025

GDR Model Performance

Please see the Performance page for more detailed performance numbers, how they’re calculated, and a chart.

For the fine print (a.k.a. the lawyer-approved stuff), don’t miss the Disclaimers section—it’s where all the “officially important” bits live!

GDR Model Outlook

Overall Outlook (as of 24 Apr 2025): NEUTRAL. The short-term and breadth outlooks are now bullish, and the long-term outlook is steadily strengthening. There is a fair chance that the market has begun to recover.

Fundamentals Outlook (as of 27 Mar 2025): Fair Value. The model has adjusted valuations upward following the release of new data. Going forward GDR Model positioning should tactically tilt more towards the long side, all else equal. Note that this is just a barometer to help guide longer-term decision-making rather than short-term market timing.

IMPORTANT NOTE REGARDING THE FUNDAMENTALS OUTLOOK: given the magnitude of the likely economic impact from the tariffs implemented by the US administration, and that the data that goes into this portion of the model comes with a delay, this part of the model is most likely inaccurate for the foreseeable future. I will keep updating it as usual, but please be aware of this. All other portions of the model are entirely unaffected.

Long-Term Outlook (as of 17 Apr 2025): Bearish. There has been persistent weakness over the long-term timeframe, but there was some slight strength to end the week.

Short-Term Outlook (as of 24 Apr 2025): Bullish. The market has been broadly strong of recent. Notably this is the kind of strength that has been largely absent since at least February and its now been sustained long enough that it could mark the start of a bonafide recovery.

Breadth Outlook (as of 24 Apr 2025): Bullish. The model is steadily flipping bullish component by component. The fact that breadth is bullish is slowly becoming more meaningful.

Volatility Outlook (as of 23 Apr 2025): Stable. The volatility outlook was upgraded today. If a recovery is under way, it will be confirmed if the volatility outlook sustains an outlook of stable or calm for at least a few days.

GDR Model Position

The GDR Model currently has a sizable long position. This is a valuation-based position so note that despite its size, the model certainly doesn’t see the market as nearly strong enough (yet) to warrant a more substantial long position based on market timing.