S&P 500 Daily Perspective for Wed 15 Oct 2025

GDR Model Performance

Please see the Performance page for more detailed performance numbers, how they’re calculated, and a chart.

For the fine print (a.k.a. the lawyer-approved stuff), don’t miss the Disclaimers section—it’s where all the “officially important” bits live!

GDR Model Outlook

Overall Outlook (as of 14 Oct 2025): NEUTRAL. The GDR Model is pointing to an indecisive market, which usually translates to choppy price action.

Fundamentals Outlook (as of 10 Oct 2025): Fair Value/Rich. The model has adjusted valuations slightly upward following the release of new data. Going forward GDR Model positioning should tactically tilt a little more towards the long side, all else equal. Note that this is just a barometer to help guide longer-term decision-making rather than short-term market timing.

IMPORTANT NOTE: it’s unknown what the impact of tariffs on valuations (or what the ultimate level of the tariffs themselves) will actually be on valuations. Rather than make tariff-related assumptions to adjust the model accordingly, the Fundamentals Outlook will remain fully data-driven as it’s always been. All other portions of the model are entirely unaffected.

Long-Term Outlook (as of 10 Oct 2025): Neutral. Any hope for renewed strength all but vanished at the end of last week. Not only was Friday’s sell-off nasty, the weakness behind was fully confirmed by the model’s read of the market.