S&P 500 Daily Perspective for Thu 18 Dec 2025
GDR Model Performance
Please see the Performance page for more detailed performance numbers, how they’re calculated, and a chart.
For the fine print (a.k.a. the lawyer-approved stuff), don’t miss the Disclaimers section—it’s where all the “officially important” bits live!
GDR Model Outlook
Overall Outlook (as of 17 Dec 2025): BULLISH. The model is bullish, which means that, according to its framework, the odds of continued upside are relatively high. However, yesterday we saw the first signs of weakness in a while… Time will tell if this will turn into something more.
Fundamentals Outlook (as of 24 Nov 2025): Rich. The model has adjusted valuations slightly upward following the release of new data. Going forward GDR Model positioning should tactically tilt a little more towards the long side, all else equal. Note that this is just a barometer to help guide longer-term decision-making rather than short-term market timing.
IMPORTANT NOTE: it’s unknown what the impact of tariffs on valuations (or what the ultimate level of the tariffs themselves) will actually be on valuations. Rather than make tariff-related assumptions to adjust the model accordingly, the Fundamentals Outlook will remain fully data-driven as it’s always been. All other portions of the model are entirely unaffected.
Long-Term Outlook (as of 12 Dec 2025): Bullish. The market is strong on the long-term timeframe despite last Friday’s weakness.
Short-Term Outlook (as of 17 Dec 2025): Bullish. The market posted a strong close again today and this time there was no weakness intraday. For now, the short-term remains bullish…
Breadth Outlook (as of 17 Dec 2025): Neutral. Breadth is neutral, but given that the overall model is broadly positive, this isn’t very important for now. If it dips further to bearish it may turn into something.
Volatility Outlook (as of 17 Dec 2025): Stable. The volatility outlook has deteriorated back to stable. Even though the back and forth has been entirely within positive categories, it’s still something to note…
GDR Model Position
Following the notable strength that has now persisted for a couple of weeks, the GDR Model is holding a significant long position.
