S&P 500 Daily Perspective for Mon 17 Nov 2025

GDR Model Performance

Please see the Performance page for more detailed performance numbers, how they’re calculated, and a chart.

For the fine print (a.k.a. the lawyer-approved stuff), don’t miss the Disclaimers section—it’s where all the “officially important” bits live!

GDR Model Outlook

Overall Outlook (as of 14 Nov 2025): NEUTRAL. The GDR Model is back to neutral overall. Almost immediately after the model had mostly flipped bullish, a few of the model’s components started to deteriorate noticeably. This is unusual, but clearly not impossible.

Fundamentals Outlook (as of 20 Oct 2025): Rich. The model has adjusted valuations slightly upward following the release of new data. Going forward GDR Model positioning should tactically tilt a little more towards the long side, all else equal. Note that this is just a barometer to help guide longer-term decision-making rather than short-term market timing.

IMPORTANT NOTE: it’s unknown what the impact of tariffs on valuations (or what the ultimate level of the tariffs themselves) will actually be on valuations. Rather than make tariff-related assumptions to adjust the model accordingly, the Fundamentals Outlook will remain fully data-driven as it’s always been. All other portions of the model are entirely unaffected.

Long-Term Outlook (as of 14 Nov 2025): Bullish. Despite the significant weakness to end last week, there is no change to the long-term outlook – it remains bullish.

Short-Term Outlook (as of 14 Nov 2025): Neutral. The market remained weak on Friday and is downgraded to neutral.An interesting turn of events…

Breadth Outlook (as of 14 Nov 2025): Bearish. Breadth is bearish and given the weakness permeating the short-term components of the model, this may be significant.

Volatility Outlook (as of 14 Nov 2025): Shaky. The volatility outlook has dropped back down to shaky. This is a negative reading and if it persists for a while, a significant sell-off becomes more likely.

GDR Model Position

Due to the two weak days in markets to close the week, the GDR Model has closed its long position and is now slightly short.