S&P 500 Daily Perspective for Thu 1 May 2025

GDR Model Performance

Please see the Performance page for more detailed performance numbers, how they’re calculated, and a chart.

For the fine print (a.k.a. the lawyer-approved stuff), don’t miss the Disclaimers section—it’s where all the “officially important” bits live!

GDR Model Outlook

Overall Outlook (as of 30 Apr 2025): NEUTRAL TO BULLISH. There is a fair chance that the market has started its recovery as volatility continues to wane, though it’s still far from certain.

Fundamentals Outlook (as of 27 Mar 2025): Fair Value. The model has adjusted valuations upward following the release of new data. Going forward GDR Model positioning should tactically tilt more towards the long side, all else equal. Note that this is just a barometer to help guide longer-term decision-making rather than short-term market timing.

IMPORTANT NOTE REGARDING THE FUNDAMENTALS OUTLOOK: given the magnitude of the likely economic impact from the tariffs implemented by the US administration, and that the data that goes into this portion of the model comes with a delay, this part of the model is most likely inaccurate for the foreseeable future. I will keep updating it as usual, but please be aware of this. All other portions of the model are entirely unaffected.

Long-Term Outlook (as of 25 Apr 2025): Bearish. However, the persistent weakness that has been present since the start of the year seems to be slowly (if not erratically?) dissipating.

Short-Term Outlook (as of 30 Apr 2025): Bullish. The market has been broadly strong. Notably this is the kind of strength that has been largely absent since at least February and it’s now been sustained long enough that it could mark the start of a bonafide recovery.

Breadth Outlook (as of 30 Apr 2025): Neutral. As the model is steadily flipping bullish component by component, I’m not attaching much meaning to today’s breadth downgrade to neutral.

Volatility Outlook (as of 30 Apr 2025): Stable. If a recovery is under way, it will be confirmed if this component of the model sustains an outlook of stable or calm for at least a few days.

GDR Model Position

Even though the long-term outlook was just short of the mark in reaching neutral status last week, the GDR Model is carrying a meaningful long position. This position is based on both favorable valuations and market-timing.