S&P 500 Daily Perspective for Fri 26 Sep 2025
GDR Model Performance
Please see the Performance page for more detailed performance numbers, how they’re calculated, and a chart.
For the fine print (a.k.a. the lawyer-approved stuff), don’t miss the Disclaimers section—it’s where all the “officially important” bits live!
GDR Model Outlook
Overall Outlook (as of 25 Sep 2025): NEUTRAL. The weakness the GDR Model started to pick up on recently has been continued for some time now. Either some sustained strength comes into the market to support it or the odds of the current rally continuing much further are likely low.
Fundamentals Outlook (as of 23 Sep 2025): Fair Value/Rich. The model has adjusted valuations slightly upward following the release of new data. Going forward GDR Model positioning should tactically tilt a little more towards the long side, all else equal. Note that this is just a barometer to help guide longer-term decision-making rather than short-term market timing.
IMPORTANT NOTE: it’s unknown what the impact of tariffs on valuations (or what the ultimate level of the tariffs themselves) will actually be on valuations. Rather than make tariff-related assumptions to adjust the model accordingly, the Fundamentals Outlook will remain fully data-driven as it’s always been. All other portions of the model are entirely unaffected.
Long-Term Outlook (as of 19 Sep 2025): Neutral. Another weak close this week and the long-term outlook has been downgraded to neutral. It’s notable that despite the rally, the market has been unable to hold on to any strength for long enough. Every time there has been some strength, it seems to fade away relatively quickly.
Short-Term Outlook (as of 25 Sep 2025): Neutral. The market was weak through and through today. If this weakness is sustained, a sell-off could gain momentum.
Breadth Outlook (as of 25 Sep 2025): Neutral. Along with the rest of the model, the breadth outlook has declined to neutral.
Volatility Outlook (as of 25 Sep 2025): Stable. The volatility outlook is in calm/stable waters, which, while sustained, will likely help protect against serious sell-offs and lift prices higher. However, it is notable that the volatility outlook has been slowly deteriorating in the midst of an uptrend…
GDR Model Position
The GDR Model went flat around mid-month after it picked up on fresh weakness. That initial weakness has gained a little bit of momentum and might see the model open a short position soon.
