S&P 500 Daily Perspective for Mon 22 Sep 2025

GDR Model Performance

Please see the Performance page for more detailed performance numbers, how they’re calculated, and a chart.

For the fine print (a.k.a. the lawyer-approved stuff), don’t miss the Disclaimers section—it’s where all the “officially important” bits live!

GDR Model Outlook

Overall Outlook (as of 19 Sep 2025): BULLISH TO NEUTRAL. After picking up on increasing strength over the recent days, the GDR Model has detected fresh weakness in the market to close the week. Either some sustained strength comes into the market to support it or the odds of the current rally continuing much further are likely low.

Fundamentals Outlook (as of 28 Aug 2025): Fair Value/Rich. The model has adjusted valuations slightly upward following the release of new data. Going forward GDR Model positioning should tactically tilt a little more towards the long side, all else equal. Note that this is just a barometer to help guide longer-term decision-making rather than short-term market timing.

IMPORTANT NOTE: it’s unknown what the impact of tariffs on valuations (or what the ultimate level of the tariffs themselves) will actually be on valuations. Rather than make tariff-related assumptions to adjust the model accordingly, the Fundamentals Outlook will remain fully data-driven as it’s always been. All other portions of the model are entirely unaffected.

Long-Term Outlook (as of 19 Sep 2025): Neutral. Another weak close this week and the long-term outlook has been downgraded to neutral. It’s notable that despite the rally, the market has been unable to hold on to any strength for long enough. Every time there has been some strength, it seems to fade away relatively quickly.