S&P 500 Daily Perspective for Thu 27 Feb 2025

GDR Model Performance

Please see the Performance page for more detailed performance numbers, how they’re calculated, and a chart.

For the fine print (a.k.a. the lawyer-approved stuff), don’t miss the Disclaimers section—it’s where all the “officially important” bits live!

GDR Model Outlook

The GDR Model is bearish as all of the model’s components are pointing towards a more serious sell-off to come...

Fundamentals Outlook (as of 31 Jan 2025): the valuation portion of the model has stocks as being richly valued (i.e. overpriced) for about 6 months now. Note that this is just a barometer to help guide longer-term decision-making rather than short-term market timing.

Long-Term Outlook (as of 21 Feb 2025): the long-term outlook remains bearish and steadily worsening. There is persistent weakness over the long-term timeframe even if prices don’t reflect its extent. When this has happened in previous times, it has taken stock prices several weeks (if not a couple of months) to catch up and begin a meaningful sell-off.

Short-Term Outlook (as of 26 Feb 2025): the short-term outlook closed weak again and is bearish. The odds of a meaningful selloff are relatively high.

Breadth Outlook (as of 26 Feb 2025): breadth has closed bearish multiple days in a row. The model’s components are lining up with an overall bearish outlook…

Volatility Outlook (as of 26 Feb 2025): the volatility outlook has been downgraded to shaky. This could mark the beginning of a more substantial sell-off.

GDR Model Position

The GDR Model has a meaningful short position. This reflects the model’s bearish outlook and the higher odds of a protracted sell-off to come.