S&P 500 Daily Perspective for Fri 1 Aug 2025

GDR Model Performance

Please see the Performance page for more detailed performance numbers, how they’re calculated, and a chart.

For the fine print (a.k.a. the lawyer-approved stuff), don’t miss the Disclaimers section—it’s where all the “officially important” bits live!

GDR Model Outlook

Overall Outlook (as of 31 Jul 2025): NEUTRAL. The market is in the midst of a breakout. However, there has been plenty of intermittent weakness to go around and the overall outlook has been downgraded. This has the potential to turn into a meaningful sell-off, but it is also possible that it might quietly resolve itself into nothing - at this point, it’s too soon to tell.

Fundamentals Outlook (as of 26 Jun 2025): Fair Value/Rich. The model has adjusted valuations slightly downward following the release of new data. Going forward GDR Model positioning should tactically tilt a little less towards the long side, all else equal. Note that this is just a barometer to help guide longer-term decision-making rather than short-term market timing.

IMPORTANT NOTE: it’s unknown what the impact of tariffs on valuations (or what the ultimate level of the tariffs themselves) will actually be on valuations. Rather than make tariff-related assumptions to adjust the model accordingly, the Fundamentals Outlook will remain fully data-driven as it’s always been. All other portions of the model are entirely unaffected.

Long-Term Outlook (as of 25 Jul 2025): Neutral. The long-term outlook has worsened of recent and is now going through a period of indecision. This can resolve itself without a meaningful impact in the market, but it’s starting to become a concern.