S&P 500 Daily Perspective for Thu 27 Mar 2025

GDR Model Performance

Please see the Performance page for more detailed performance numbers, how they’re calculated, and a chart.

For the fine print (a.k.a. the lawyer-approved stuff), don’t miss the Disclaimers section—it’s where all the “officially important” bits live!

GDR Model Outlook

The GDR Model is neutral. The serious sell-off the model had been pointing towards for weeks is now well underway. However, the model currently points to indecision in the market so the chance of choppy price movements is higher than usual.

Fundamentals Outlook (as of 10 Mar 2025): the valuation portion of the model has dropped back down to fair value after many months, which implies valuations are more attractive now. Note that this is just a barometer to help guide longer-term decision-making rather than short-term market timing.

Long-Term Outlook (as of 21 Mar 2025): the long-term outlook remains bearish, and is back to a weak close.There has been persistent weakness over the long-term timeframe and the market is unlikely to fully recover until this weakness gives way to renewed strength.

Short-Term Outlook (as of 26 Mar 2025): the short-term outlook remains bullish but weakened substantially today. If sustained, this portion of the model could begin to see downgrades.

Breadth Outlook (as of 26 Mar 2025): breadth is back down to bearish. While the impact on the overall read of the model remains minimal, it’s notable to potentially see the model start to align to the downside once again.

Volatility Outlook (as of 26 Mar 2025): the volatility outlook is stable. If this is sustained then the odds of a significant sell-off remain low as it’s difficult for prices to move meaningfully without a pick up in volatility.

GDR Model Position

The GDR Model has a modest long position. This still falls in the camp of tactical positioning due to market indecision rather than a full-blown change in sentiment - the model certainly doesn’t see the market as strong enough to warrant a more substantial long position.