S&P 500 Daily Perspective for Fri 23 May 2025
GDR Model Performance
Please see the Performance page for more detailed performance numbers, how they’re calculated, and a chart.
For the fine print (a.k.a. the lawyer-approved stuff), don’t miss the Disclaimers section—it’s where all the “officially important” bits live!
GDR Model Outlook
Overall Outlook (as of 22 May 2025): BULLISH TO NEUTRAL. The recent recovery was convincing, but a number of the model’s components have shown quick and meaningful deterioration over the last couple of days.
Fundamentals Outlook (as of 27 Mar 2025): Fair Value. The model has adjusted valuations upward following the release of new data. Going forward GDR Model positioning should tactically tilt more towards the long side, all else equal. Note that this is just a barometer to help guide longer-term decision-making rather than short-term market timing.
IMPORTANT NOTE REGARDING THE FUNDAMENTALS OUTLOOK: given the magnitude of the likely economic impact from the tariffs implemented by the US administration, and that the data that goes into this portion of the model comes with a delay, this part of the model is most likely inaccurate for the foreseeable future. I will keep updating it as usual, but please be aware of this. All other portions of the model are entirely unaffected.
Long-Term Outlook (as of 16 May 2025): Bullish. The long-term outlook has finally joined the rest of the model in turning bullish. This is undeniably a strong market.
Short-Term Outlook (as of 22 May 2025): Neutral. The market’s recent strength has waned materially over the past couple of days. This has been a markedly fast deterioration…
Breadth Outlook (as of 22 May 2025): Neutral. At this point, this recent downgrade isn’t significant, but if the short-term outlook remains weak then things can change quickly…
Volatility Outlook (as of 22 May 2025): Stable. The volatility outlook has joined in the downgrades. An outlook of stable by itself shouldn’t sound any alarm bells, but the fact that multiple components are deteriorating so quickly should at least put traders on their toes…
GDR Model Position
The GDR Model has oped to take partial profits on its long position and reduce exposure. At this point the model sees some potential for a break in the recent uptrend. Time will tell…
