S&P 500 Daily Perspective for Tue 4 Nov 2025
GDR Model Performance
Please see the Performance page for more detailed performance numbers, how they’re calculated, and a chart.
For the fine print (a.k.a. the lawyer-approved stuff), don’t miss the Disclaimers section—it’s where all the “officially important” bits live!
GDR Model Outlook
Overall Outlook (as of 3 Nov 2025): NEUTRAL. The GDR Model is pointing to more crosswinds in the market. The indecision is more likely to get in the way of a meaningful trend.
Fundamentals Outlook (as of 20 Oct 2025): Rich. The model has adjusted valuations slightly upward following the release of new data. Going forward GDR Model positioning should tactically tilt a little more towards the long side, all else equal. Note that this is just a barometer to help guide longer-term decision-making rather than short-term market timing.
IMPORTANT NOTE: it’s unknown what the impact of tariffs on valuations (or what the ultimate level of the tariffs themselves) will actually be on valuations. Rather than make tariff-related assumptions to adjust the model accordingly, the Fundamentals Outlook will remain fully data-driven as it’s always been. All other portions of the model are entirely unaffected.
Long-Term Outlook (as of 31 Oct 2025): Neutral. The long-term outlook improved again this week, though still not enough for an upgrade. It is notable that the long-term outlook seems to be at odds with short-term and breadth.
Short-Term Outlook (as of 3 Nov 2025): Bearish. The short-term outlook remains bearish and has shown persistent weakness for a while now.
Breadth Outlook (as of 3 Nov 2025): Bearish. Breadth remains bearish and supports the idea of a weak market over the last several of days.
Volatility Outlook (as of 3 Nov 2025): Calm. The volatility outlook remains calm, which makes drastic sell-off much less likely.
GDR Model Position
The GDR Model has added to its short position. This is another tactical adjustment that is unlikely to be held for long, especially if the market starts moving against it.
