S&P 500 Daily Perspective for Mon 10 Mar 2025

GDR Model Performance

Please see the Performance page for more detailed performance numbers, how they’re calculated, and a chart.

For the fine print (a.k.a. the lawyer-approved stuff), don’t miss the Disclaimers section—it’s where all the “officially important” bits live!

GDR Model Outlook

The GDR Model is bearish and the serious sell-off the model has been pointing towards for several weeks is now well underway.

Fundamentals Outlook (as of 31 Jan 2025): the valuation portion of the model has stocks as being richly valued (i.e. overpriced) for about 6 months now. Note that this is just a barometer to help guide longer-term decision-making rather than short-term market timing.

Long-Term Outlook (as of 7 Mar 2025): the long-term outlook remains bearish. There has been persistent weakness over the long-term timeframe and the market is unlikely to fully recover until this weakness gives way to renewed strength.

Short-Term Outlook (as of 7 Mar 2025): the short-term outlook is bearish and has had a weak close for several days in a row now. The market has been struggling to hold on to any bit of strength that comes in. If this changes, it could mark the start of an eventual recovery.

Breadth Outlook (as of 7 Mar 2025): breadth finished the week neutral, but it’s so borderline that I will ignore it for now.

Volatility Outlook (as of 7 Mar 2025): the volatility outlook remains shaky. As long as this component is shaky or volatile, there won’t be much to stop the market from a significant sell-off (along with nasty short-covering rallies in between).

GDR Model Position

The GDR Model has a meaningful short position. This reflects the model’s bearish outlook and the higher odds of a protracted sell-off.