S&P 500 Daily Perspective for Fri 14 Nov 2025

GDR Model Performance

Please see the Performance page for more detailed performance numbers, how they’re calculated, and a chart.

For the fine print (a.k.a. the lawyer-approved stuff), don’t miss the Disclaimers section—it’s where all the “officially important” bits live!

GDR Model Outlook

Overall Outlook (as of 13 Nov 2025): BULLISH TO NEUTRAL. The GDR Model has (mostly) flipped bullish. At this point the only component at odds with the rest of the model is breadth.

Fundamentals Outlook (as of 20 Oct 2025): Rich. The model has adjusted valuations slightly upward following the release of new data. Going forward GDR Model positioning should tactically tilt a little more towards the long side, all else equal. Note that this is just a barometer to help guide longer-term decision-making rather than short-term market timing.

IMPORTANT NOTE: it’s unknown what the impact of tariffs on valuations (or what the ultimate level of the tariffs themselves) will actually be on valuations. Rather than make tariff-related assumptions to adjust the model accordingly, the Fundamentals Outlook will remain fully data-driven as it’s always been. All other portions of the model are entirely unaffected.

Long-Term Outlook (as of 7 Nov 2025): Bullish. The long-term outlook improved again this week and has now improved to bullish. It is notable that the long-term outlook seems to be at odds with short-term and breadth, and this may well suggest buy and hold interest popping up in the market.