S&P 500 Daily Perspective for Tue 17 Mar 2026

GDR Model Performance

Please see the Performance page for more detailed performance numbers, how they’re calculated, and a chart.

For the fine print (a.k.a. the lawyer-approved stuff), don’t miss the Disclaimers section—it’s where all the “officially important” bits live!

GDR Model Outlook

Overall Outlook (as of 16 Mar 2026): MOSTLY BEARISH. Market conditions have been worsening significantly over the last few trading days. The odds of a significant sell-off have increased notably and is something that may be worth preparing for even if just in case…

Fundamentals Outlook (as of 24 Dec 2025): Fair Value/Rich. The model has adjusted valuations slightly upward following the release of new data. Going forward GDR Model positioning should tactically tilt a little more towards the long side, all else equal. Note that this is just a barometer to help guide longer-term decision-making rather than short-term market timing.

Long-Term Outlook (as of 13 Mar 2026): Neutral. The market showed weakness at the end of the week again. The long-term outlook is downgraded to neutral.

Short-Term Outlook (as of 16 Mar 2026): Bearish. The short-term outlook showed weakness throughout the day yet again. Weakness on the short-term outlook has persisted for a few days now.

Breadth Outlook (as of 16 Mar 2026): Neutral. Breadth improved to neutral, which doesn’t mean much at this point given the persistent weakness in the other model components.

Volatility Outlook (as of 16 Mar 2026): Volatile. Volatility is back down to volatile, which is the worst reading. Continue expecting wide ranges whether that comes in the form of bigger sell-offs or nasty short-covering rallies.

GDR Model Position

The GDR model’s read of the current market has continued to deteriorate. As such, the model has opened a short position. Let’s see if we finally get followthrough for once…