S&P 500 Daily Perspective for Wed 7 May 2025

GDR Model Performance

Please see the Performance page for more detailed performance numbers, how they’re calculated, and a chart.

For the fine print (a.k.a. the lawyer-approved stuff), don’t miss the Disclaimers section—it’s where all the “officially important” bits live!

GDR Model Outlook

Overall Outlook (as of 6 May 2025): NEUTRAL TO BULLISH. The market seems to be well along on its recovery as volatility continues to wane.

Fundamentals Outlook (as of 27 Mar 2025): Fair Value. The model has adjusted valuations upward following the release of new data. Going forward GDR Model positioning should tactically tilt more towards the long side, all else equal. Note that this is just a barometer to help guide longer-term decision-making rather than short-term market timing.

IMPORTANT NOTE REGARDING THE FUNDAMENTALS OUTLOOK: given the magnitude of the likely economic impact from the tariffs implemented by the US administration, and that the data that goes into this portion of the model comes with a delay, this part of the model is most likely inaccurate for the foreseeable future. I will keep updating it as usual, but please be aware of this. All other portions of the model are entirely unaffected.

Long-Term Outlook (as of 2 May 2025): Neutral. The weakness from earlier in the year seems to be giving way to renewed strength in the market.

Short-Term Outlook (as of 6 May 2025): Bullish. The market has been broadly strong despite the two down days in a row. Notably this is the kind of strength that has been largely absent since at least February and it’s now been sustained long enough that it could mark the start of a bonafide recovery.

Breadth Outlook (as of 6 May 2025): Neutral. The model has been steadily flipping bullish component by component, and for now this downgrade to neutral isn’t very meaningful.

Volatility Outlook (as of 6 May 2025): Shaky. A single day’s drop to shaky doesn’t threaten the recent recovery, but if sustained the market could well be headed for another drop.

GDR Model Position

The GDR Model is neutral to bullish overall, however as it sees lower odds of further upside in the near-term it recently reduced its long position. If the market maintains its recent strength I’d expect the model to add to its long position again soon.