S&P 500 Daily Perspective for Fri 29 Aug 2025

GDR Model Performance

Please see the Performance page for more detailed performance numbers, how they’re calculated, and a chart.

For the fine print (a.k.a. the lawyer-approved stuff), don’t miss the Disclaimers section—it’s where all the “officially important” bits live!

GDR Model Outlook

Overall Outlook (as of 28 Aug 2025): NEUTRAL TO BULLISH. The GDR Model picked up on notable strength to close last week. So far this strength has been sustained, which may warrant a change in the model’s overall outlook soon.

Fundamentals Outlook (as of 28 Aug 2025): Fair Value/Rich. The model has adjusted valuations slightly upward following the release of new data. Going forward GDR Model positioning should tactically tilt a little more towards the long side, all else equal. Note that this is just a barometer to help guide longer-term decision-making rather than short-term market timing.

IMPORTANT NOTE: it’s unknown what the impact of tariffs on valuations (or what the ultimate level of the tariffs themselves) will actually be on valuations. Rather than make tariff-related assumptions to adjust the model accordingly, the Fundamentals Outlook will remain fully data-driven as it’s always been. All other portions of the model are entirely unaffected.

Long-Term Outlook (as of 22 Aug 2025): Bearish. The long-term outlook remains bearish but posted an unusually strong close to the week. The GDR Model is designed not to overreact, but the strength from Friday is sustained then a quick reversal in outlook could be in the cards… Time will tell.

Short-Term Outlook (as of 28 Aug 2025): Bullish. The market has closed bullish for several days in a row so I’d say the bullish outlook is relatively firm at this point.

Breadth Outlook (as of 28 Aug 2025): Bullish. Breadth is bullish, and that would become meaningful in a scenario where the rest of the model is pointing in the same direction. For now this is just something to be aware of.

Volatility Outlook (as of 28 Aug 2025): Calm. The volatility outlook is in calm waters, which may get in the way of any serious sell-offs and may even lift prices higher, if sustained.

GDR Model Position

The GDR Model is currently flat, however that may soon change if current strength in the market remains. Tomorrow’s PCE data release may be key.