S&P 500 Daily Perspective for Wed 6 Aug 2025

GDR Model Performance

Please see the Performance page for more detailed performance numbers, how they’re calculated, and a chart.

For the fine print (a.k.a. the lawyer-approved stuff), don’t miss the Disclaimers section—it’s where all the “officially important” bits live!

GDR Model Outlook

Overall Outlook (as of 5 Aug 2025): BEARISH TO NEUTRAL. Odds still favor a sustained sell-off, but at this point it seems like the market is back to a period of indecision.

Fundamentals Outlook (as of 26 Jun 2025): Fair Value/Rich. The model has adjusted valuations slightly downward following the release of new data. Going forward GDR Model positioning should tactically tilt a little less towards the long side, all else equal. Note that this is just a barometer to help guide longer-term decision-making rather than short-term market timing.

IMPORTANT NOTE: it’s unknown what the impact of tariffs on valuations (or what the ultimate level of the tariffs themselves) will actually be on valuations. Rather than make tariff-related assumptions to adjust the model accordingly, the Fundamentals Outlook will remain fully data-driven as it’s always been. All other portions of the model are entirely unaffected.

Long-Term Outlook (as of 1 Aug 2025): Bearish. The long-term outlook is now bearish and a meaningful sell-off is well within the realm of possibility.

Short-Term Outlook (as of 5 Aug 2025): Neutral. The short-term outlook closed strong for the second day in a row and is upgraded to neutral.

Breadth Outlook (as of 5 Aug 2025): Neutral. Breadth has dropped back to neutral. This corroborates the idea that the market may be going through another period of indecision before taking direction again.

Volatility Outlook (as of 5 Aug 2025): Shaky. The recent downgrade to shaky opens the possibility for a serious sell-off, however, it’s worth noting that volatile markets can cut both ways.

GDR Model Position

Given that the market seems to be headed to indecision, the GDR Model has closed its recent short position. It had been a while since the model had a losing trade.