S&P 500 Daily Perspective for Fri 2 Jan 2026

GDR Model Performance

Please see the Performance page for more detailed performance numbers, how they’re calculated, and a chart.

For the fine print (a.k.a. the lawyer-approved stuff), don’t miss the Disclaimers section—it’s where all the “officially important” bits live!

GDR Model Outlook

Overall Outlook (as of 31 Dec 2025): NEUTRAL. Enough of the model’s components have deteriorated that the overall read on the market has dropped to neutral. For now this seems to be mostly indecision…

Fundamentals Outlook (as of 24 Dec 2025): Fair Value/Rich. The model has adjusted valuations slightly upward following the release of new data. Going forward GDR Model positioning should tactically tilt a little more towards the long side, all else equal. Note that this is just a barometer to help guide longer-term decision-making rather than short-term market timing.

Long-Term Outlook (as of 26 Dec 2025): Bullish. The market remains strong on the long-term timeframe.

Short-Term Outlook (as of 31 Dec 2025): Neutral. The market has weakened enough on the short-term timeframe to warrant a downgrade to neutral. At this point this seems to be some indecision, but could easily turn into a sell-off.

Breadth Outlook (as of 31 Dec 2025): Bearish. Breadth is bearish for the second time in just a few days. The recent back and forth here corroborates the indecision the model is picking up on in the short-term.

Volatility Outlook (as of 31 Dec 2025): Calm. Even though the recent back and forth has been entirely between positive categories (calm and stable), it’s still something to note…

GDR Model Position

The market has weakened a bit this week so the GDR Model has closed its long position and is now mostly flat.