S&P 500 Daily Perspective for Thu 24 Jul 2025

GDR Model Performance

Please see the Performance page for more detailed performance numbers, how they’re calculated, and a chart.

For the fine print (a.k.a. the lawyer-approved stuff), don’t miss the Disclaimers section—it’s where all the “officially important” bits live!

GDR Model Outlook

Overall Outlook (as of 23 Jul 2025): MOSTLY BULLISH. The market seems to be breaking out again from a recent consolidation. However, there was weakness to end last week as well as the week before. This can still turn into meaningful weakness over time or it might quietly resolve itself into nothing - at this point, it’s too soon to tell, but it’s slowly becoming a concern.

Fundamentals Outlook (as of 26 Jun 2025): Fair Value/Rich. The model has adjusted valuations slightly downward following the release of new data. Going forward GDR Model positioning should tactically tilt a little less towards the long side, all else equal. Note that this is just a barometer to help guide longer-term decision-making rather than short-term market timing.

IMPORTANT NOTE: it’s unknown what the impact of tariffs on valuations (or what the ultimate level of the tariffs themselves) will actually be on valuations. Rather than make tariff-related assumptions to adjust the model accordingly, the Fundamentals Outlook will remain fully data-driven as it’s always been. All other portions of the model are entirely unaffected.

Long-Term Outlook (as of 18 Jul 2025): Neutral. The long-term outlook has worsened over the last couple of weeks. This can resolve itself without a meaningful impact in the market, but it’s starting to become a concern.

Short-Term Outlook (as of 23 Jul 2025): Bullish. The short-term outlook has shown strength throughout the last two days, however, there has been weakness and indecision in recent days.

Breadth Outlook (as of 23 Jul 2025): Bullish. Breadth is in line with most of the model’s other components.

Volatility Outlook (as of 23 Jul 2025): Calm. If the volatility outlook remains stable or calm, the market is more likely to continue drifting upwards while at the same time meaningful sell-offs are unlikely.

GDR Model Position

The GDR Model is opening a modest long position following the market’s restrengthening. Despite today’s upswing, the model remains cautious.