S&P 500 Daily Perspective for Thu 20 Mar 2025

GDR Model Performance

Please see the Performance page for more detailed performance numbers, how they’re calculated, and a chart.

For the fine print (a.k.a. the lawyer-approved stuff), don’t miss the Disclaimers section—it’s where all the “officially important” bits live!

GDR Model Outlook

The GDR Model is neutral. The serious sell-off the model had been pointing towards for weeks is now well underway. However, there is some nascent strength in the market, which, if sustained could lead a market recovery.

Fundamentals Outlook (as of 10 Mar 2025): the valuation portion of the model has dropped back down to fair value after many months, which implies valuations are more attractive now. Note that this is just a barometer to help guide longer-term decision-making rather than short-term market timing.

Long-Term Outlook (as of 14 Mar 2025): the long-term outlook remains bearish, but had a strong close last week.There has been persistent weakness over the long-term timeframe and the market is unlikely to fully recover until this weakness gives way to renewed strength. Could last week’s strength show followthrough?

Short-Term Outlook (as of 19 Mar 2025): the short-term outlook is upgraded to bullish after a strong close today. This can portend a recovery in the market if sustained.

Breadth Outlook (as of 19 Mar 2025): breadth remains neutral, but for now it doesn’t have much impact on the overall read of the model.

Volatility Outlook (as of 19 Mar 2025): the volatility outlook has been upgraded to stable. If sustained, this would also increase the chances of a recovery in the market.

GDR Model Position

The GDR Model has a modest long position. This still falls in the camp of tactical positioning rather than a change in sentiment - the model still doesn’t see the market as strong enough to warrant a more substantial long position.