S&P 500 Daily Perspective for Fri 13 June 2025

GDR Model Performance

Please see the Performance page for more detailed performance numbers, how they’re calculated, and a chart.

For the fine print (a.k.a. the lawyer-approved stuff), don’t miss the Disclaimers section—it’s where all the “officially important” bits live!

GDR Model Outlook

Overall Outlook (as of 12 Jun 2025): BULLISH. Following a quick break, the market seems to be on a fresh upward swing.

Fundamentals Outlook (as of 6 Jun 2025): Fair Value/Rich. The model has adjusted valuations slightly downward following the release of new data. Going forward GDR Model positioning should tactically tilt a little less towards the long side, all else equal. Note that this is just a barometer to help guide longer-term decision-making rather than short-term market timing.

IMPORTANT NOTE: it’s unknown what the impact of tariffs on valuations (or what the ultimate level of the tariffs themselves) will actually be on valuations. Rather than make tariff-related assumptions to adjust the model accordingly, the Fundamentals Outlook will remain fully data-driven as it’s always been. All other portions of the model are entirely unaffected.

Long-Term Outlook (as of 6 Jun 2025): Bullish. The market remains strong from a long-term perspective despite the recent back and forth.

Short-Term Outlook (as of 12 Jun 2025): Bullish. The market has sustained strength for a number of days.

Breadth Outlook (as of 12 Jun 2025): Bullish. Breadth remains bullish, which is in line with all of the model’s components.

Volatility Outlook (as of 12 Jun 2025): Calm. As long as this component of the model continues to sustain at stable or better, the market should continue to drift upwards over time.

GDR Model Position

In line continued strength in the market, the GDR Model is carrying a significant long position.