S&P 500 Daily Perspective for Thu 10 Apr 2025

GDR Model Performance

Please see the Performance page for more detailed performance numbers, how they’re calculated, and a chart.

For the fine print (a.k.a. the lawyer-approved stuff), don’t miss the Disclaimers section—it’s where all the “officially important” bits live!

GDR Model Outlook

Overall Outlook (as of 4 Apr 2025): BEARISH. The serious sell-off the model had been pointing towards since February is now well underway. The model’s components are aligned on the bearish side.

Fundamentals Outlook (as of 27 Mar 2025): Fair Value. The model has adjusted valuations upward following the release of new data. Going forward GDR Model positioning should tactically tilt more towards the long side, all else equal. Note that this is just a barometer to help guide longer-term decision-making rather than short-term market timing.

IMPORTANT NOTE REGARDING THE FUNDAMENTALS OUTLOOK: given the magnitude of the likely economic impact from the tariffs implemented by the US administration, and that the data that goes into this portion of the model comes with a delay, this part of the model is most likely inaccurate for the foreseeable future. I will keep updating it as usual, but please be aware of this. All other portions of the model are entirely unaffected.

Long-Term Outlook (as of 4 Apr 2025): Bearish. There has been persistent weakness over the long-term timeframe and the market is unlikely to fully recover until this weakness gives way to renewed strength.

Short-Term Outlook (as of 9 Apr 2025): Bearish. While today’s rally of nearly 10% is significant in price terms, the model still flagged a weak close. The market certainly strengthened, but in absolute terms it’s still weak.

Breadth Outlook (as of 9 Apr 2025): Bearish. This is meaningful given that the model is in agreement throughout its components.

Volatility Outlook (as of 9 Apr 2025): Shaky. This is an improvement, but it’s still well within the parameters that allow for the sell-off to deepen as well as for face-ripping short-covering rallies (like today’s). Trade cautiously.

GDR Model Position

The GDR Model has taken partial profits on the long position it had been building over the last several days. Overall, as the model finds stocks to be better value, it will continue building its position when the market falls and taking partial profits when it rises. However note that despite this, the model certainly doesn’t see the market as nearly strong enough to warrant a substantial long position based on market timing.