S&P 500 Daily Perspective for Fri 20 June 2025

GDR Model Performance

Please see the Performance page for more detailed performance numbers, how they’re calculated, and a chart.

For the fine print (a.k.a. the lawyer-approved stuff), don’t miss the Disclaimers section—it’s where all the “officially important” bits live!

GDR Model Outlook

Overall Outlook (as of 18 Jun 2025): BULLISH TO NEUTRAL. The market’s recent uptrend is starting to fall under threat…

Fundamentals Outlook (as of 17 Jun 2025): Fair Value. The model has adjusted valuations slightly downward following the release of new data. Going forward GDR Model positioning should tactically tilt a little less towards the long side, all else equal. Note that this is just a barometer to help guide longer-term decision-making rather than short-term market timing.

IMPORTANT NOTE: it’s unknown what the impact of tariffs on valuations (or what the ultimate level of the tariffs themselves) will actually be on valuations. Rather than make tariff-related assumptions to adjust the model accordingly, the Fundamentals Outlook will remain fully data-driven as it’s always been. All other portions of the model are entirely unaffected.

Long-Term Outlook (as of 13 Jun 2025): Bullish. The market remains strong from a long-term perspective, but last week closed on a notably weak note.

Short-Term Outlook (as of 18 Jun 2025): Neutral. The market is starting to show weakness. If sustained we may have a more serious sell-off coming soon.

Breadth Outlook (as of 18 Jun 2025): Neutral. Usually a brief drop to neutral isn’t of note, but given that the long outlook showed noticeable weakness last Friday and that the short-term outlook is starting to deteriorate, there is a non-zero chance this could turn into something.

Volatility Outlook (as of 18 Jun 2025): Stable. As long as this component of the model continues to sustain at stable or better, the market should continue to drift upwards over time. Moreover, despite any weakness, it may be difficult to get a serious sell-off without a deterioration in volatility.

GDR Model Position

After a failed breakout, the GDR Model sees potential for choppy markets yet again. As such, it is maintaining a negligible long position.