S&P 500 Daily Perspective for Wed 1 Apr 2026

GDR Model Performance

Please see the Performance page for more detailed performance numbers, how they’re calculated, and a chart.

For the fine print (a.k.a. the lawyer-approved stuff), don’t miss the Disclaimers section—it’s where all the “officially important” bits live!

GDR Model Outlook

Overall Outlook (as of 31 Mar 2026): BEARISH. Market conditions are at the most bearish state and the market into a meaningful sell-off.

Fundamentals Outlook (as of 26 Mar 2026): Fair Value. Today’s sell-off made fundamentals slightly more favorable so the model will tilt slightly more long when opportune.

Long-Term Outlook (as of 27 Mar 2026): Bearish. The market showed weakness at the end of the week again. The long-term outlook remains bearish.

Short-Term Outlook (as of 31 Mar 2026): Bearish. The short-term outlook remains bearish, but for the first time in a long time the market opened on a strong note and managed to keep that strength through the day. Tomorrow could well be an important day.

Breadth Outlook (as of 31 Mar 2026): Neutral. Breadth improved to neutral. This could be temporary, though it could also be coming in lockstep with the short-term strength observed today.

Volatility Outlook (as of 31 Mar 2026): Shaky. Volatility improved to shaky, however since this is still a negative reading continue expecting wide ranges. This could come in the form of bigger sell-offs or nasty short-covering rallies (like today’s).

GDR Model Position

The GDR model’s read of the current market remains bearish, and despite the strength, the model is opting to reopen its short position. This one could be short-lived, time will tell…