S&P 500 Daily Perspective for Mon 3 Nov 2025

GDR Model Performance

Please see the Performance page for more detailed performance numbers, how they’re calculated, and a chart.

For the fine print (a.k.a. the lawyer-approved stuff), don’t miss the Disclaimers section—it’s where all the “officially important” bits live!

GDR Model Outlook

Overall Outlook (as of 31 Oct 2025): NEUTRAL. The GDR Model is pointing to more crosswinds in the market. The indecision is more likely to get in the way of a meaningful trend.

Fundamentals Outlook (as of 20 Oct 2025): Rich. The model has adjusted valuations slightly upward following the release of new data. Going forward GDR Model positioning should tactically tilt a little more towards the long side, all else equal. Note that this is just a barometer to help guide longer-term decision-making rather than short-term market timing.

IMPORTANT NOTE: it’s unknown what the impact of tariffs on valuations (or what the ultimate level of the tariffs themselves) will actually be on valuations. Rather than make tariff-related assumptions to adjust the model accordingly, the Fundamentals Outlook will remain fully data-driven as it’s always been. All other portions of the model are entirely unaffected.

Long-Term Outlook (as of 31 Oct 2025): Neutral. The long-term outlook improved again this week, though still not enough for an upgrade. It is notable that the long-term outlook seems to be at odds with short-term and breadth.

Short-Term Outlook (as of 31 Oct 2025): Bearish. The short-term outlook weakened yet again and is now bearish.

Breadth Outlook (as of 31 Oct 2025): Bearish. Breadth remains bearish and supports the idea of a weak market over the last couple of days.

Volatility Outlook (as of 31 Oct 2025): Calm. The volatility outlook remains calm, which makes drastic sell-off much less likely.

GDR Model Position

The GDR Model has added to its short position. This is another tactical adjustment that is unlikely to be held for long.