S&P 500 Daily Perspective for Fri 12 Sep 2025

GDR Model Performance

Please see the Performance page for more detailed performance numbers, how they’re calculated, and a chart.

For the fine print (a.k.a. the lawyer-approved stuff), don’t miss the Disclaimers section—it’s where all the “officially important” bits live!

GDR Model Outlook

Overall Outlook (as of 11 Sep 2025): BULLISH. The GDR Model has been picking up on notable strength in the market for a while now and it’s now fully bullish.

Fundamentals Outlook (as of 28 Aug 2025): Fair Value/Rich. The model has adjusted valuations slightly upward following the release of new data. Going forward GDR Model positioning should tactically tilt a little more towards the long side, all else equal. Note that this is just a barometer to help guide longer-term decision-making rather than short-term market timing.

IMPORTANT NOTE: it’s unknown what the impact of tariffs on valuations (or what the ultimate level of the tariffs themselves) will actually be on valuations. Rather than make tariff-related assumptions to adjust the model accordingly, the Fundamentals Outlook will remain fully data-driven as it’s always been. All other portions of the model are entirely unaffected.

Long-Term Outlook (as of 5 Sep 2025): Bullish. The long-term outlook has been upgraded to bullish as the market has shown consistent and persistent strength for some time now. At this point I’d say it’s confirmed that the sell-off warning from two or three months ago was a false alarm.