S&P 500 Daily Perspective for Thu 18 Sep 2025

GDR Model Performance

Please see the Performance page for more detailed performance numbers, how they’re calculated, and a chart.

For the fine print (a.k.a. the lawyer-approved stuff), don’t miss the Disclaimers section—it’s where all the “officially important” bits live!

GDR Model Outlook

Overall Outlook (as of 17 Sep 2025): BULLISH. The GDR Model has been picking up on notable strength in the market for a while now and it’s fully bullish. If the market can maintain today’s strength then it’s likely to reopen its long position.

Fundamentals Outlook (as of 28 Aug 2025): Fair Value/Rich. The model has adjusted valuations slightly upward following the release of new data. Going forward GDR Model positioning should tactically tilt a little more towards the long side, all else equal. Note that this is just a barometer to help guide longer-term decision-making rather than short-term market timing.

IMPORTANT NOTE: it’s unknown what the impact of tariffs on valuations (or what the ultimate level of the tariffs themselves) will actually be on valuations. Rather than make tariff-related assumptions to adjust the model accordingly, the Fundamentals Outlook will remain fully data-driven as it’s always been. All other portions of the model are entirely unaffected.

Long-Term Outlook (as of 12 Sep 2025): Bullish. The long-term outlook posted a weak close to the week. It’s not material weakness, however, the speed with which this portion of the model went from being unquestionably strong back to weakness is notable.

Short-Term Outlook (as of 17 Sep 2025): Bullish. The market was strong throughout the day, even during the intra-day sell-off around the FOMC Press Conference. The key going forward will be sustaining this strength.

Breadth Outlook (as of 17 Sep 2025): Bullish. The bullish alignment across all of the model’s components makes this a meaningful data point.

Volatility Outlook (as of 17 Sep 2025): Calm. The volatility outlook is in calm waters, which, while sustained, will likely help protect against serious sell-offs and lift prices higher.

GDR Model Position

Even though the market has been showing consistent strength for a while, the GDR Model has opted to close its long position following a sudden and material drop in strength last week. The model is effectively flat.