S&P 500 Daily Perspective for Tue 24 June 2025

GDR Model Performance

Please see the Performance page for more detailed performance numbers, how they’re calculated, and a chart.

For the fine print (a.k.a. the lawyer-approved stuff), don’t miss the Disclaimers section—it’s where all the “officially important” bits live!

GDR Model Outlook

Overall Outlook (as of 23 Jun 2025): MOSTLY BULLISH. The market seems to be attempting to resume its uptrend. If underlying strength is sustained the market should resolve upward…

Fundamentals Outlook (as of 23 Jun 2025): Fair Value/Rich. The model has adjusted valuations slightly downward following the release of new data. Going forward GDR Model positioning should tactically tilt a little less towards the long side, all else equal. Note that this is just a barometer to help guide longer-term decision-making rather than short-term market timing.

IMPORTANT NOTE: it’s unknown what the impact of tariffs on valuations (or what the ultimate level of the tariffs themselves) will actually be on valuations. Rather than make tariff-related assumptions to adjust the model accordingly, the Fundamentals Outlook will remain fully data-driven as it’s always been. All other portions of the model are entirely unaffected.

Long-Term Outlook (as of 20 Jun 2025): Bullish. The market remains strong from a long-term perspective, but last week barely closed on a strong note.

Short-Term Outlook (as of 23 Jun 2025): Bullish. The short-term outlook closed bullish again, though the market showed material weakness halfway through the day. There’s a good chance this will amount to nothing, but it’s good to note nonetheless.

Breadth Outlook (as of 23 Jun 2025): Neutral. Breadth remains stubbornly neutral. This wouldn’t stop the market from continuing upward, but it’s notable nonetheless.

Volatility Outlook (as of 23 Jun 2025): Stable. The volatility outlook has returned back up to stable. If it remains stable or calm, the market is more likely to continue drifting upwards while at the same time meaningful sell-offs are unlikely.

GDR Model Position

At the recent sign of strength, the GDR Model has opted to recently reopen an aggressive long position…