S&P 500 Daily Perspective for Wed 18 Feb 2026

GDR Model Performance

Please see the Performance page for more detailed performance numbers, how they’re calculated, and a chart.

For the fine print (a.k.a. the lawyer-approved stuff), don’t miss the Disclaimers section—it’s where all the “officially important” bits live!

GDR Model Outlook

Overall Outlook (as of 17 Feb 2026): NEUTRAL TO BULLISH. The model has shown a marked worsening in market conditions of late, but despite the most recent sell-off it’s still bullish as there has been plenty of strength present.

Fundamentals Outlook (as of 24 Dec 2025): Fair Value/Rich. The model has adjusted valuations slightly upward following the release of new data. Going forward GDR Model positioning should tactically tilt a little more towards the long side, all else equal. Note that this is just a barometer to help guide longer-term decision-making rather than short-term market timing.

Long-Term Outlook (as of 13 Feb 2026): Bullish. The market closed the week strong and remains bullish.

Short-Term Outlook (as of 17 Feb 2026): Bullish. The market is bullish on the short-term timeframe, and has returned to notable strength since Friday.

Breadth Outlook (as of 17 Feb 2026): Bearish. Back to bearish here. This continues to be a point of concern…

Volatility Outlook (as of 17 Feb 2026): Shaky. Volatility remains shaky since last Thursday. This opens the gates for both sharper sell-offs but also for dramatic short-covering rallies.

GDR Model Position

The market showed enough re-strengthening of late for the GDR Model to carry a meaningful long position.