S&P 500 Daily Perspective for Tue 18 Nov 2025

GDR Model Performance

Please see the Performance page for more detailed performance numbers, how they’re calculated, and a chart.

For the fine print (a.k.a. the lawyer-approved stuff), don’t miss the Disclaimers section—it’s where all the “officially important” bits live!

GDR Model Outlook

Overall Outlook (as of 17 Nov 2025): NEUTRAL TO BEARISH. The GDR Model is once again pointing to fresh weakness in the market. Time will tell if this time we’ll see a more significant sell-off before renewed strength kicks in…

Fundamentals Outlook (as of 20 Oct 2025): Rich. The model has adjusted valuations slightly upward following the release of new data. Going forward GDR Model positioning should tactically tilt a little more towards the long side, all else equal. Note that this is just a barometer to help guide longer-term decision-making rather than short-term market timing.

IMPORTANT NOTE: it’s unknown what the impact of tariffs on valuations (or what the ultimate level of the tariffs themselves) will actually be on valuations. Rather than make tariff-related assumptions to adjust the model accordingly, the Fundamentals Outlook will remain fully data-driven as it’s always been. All other portions of the model are entirely unaffected.

Long-Term Outlook (as of 14 Nov 2025): Bullish. Despite the significant weakness to end last week, there is no change to the long-term outlook – it remains bullish.

Short-Term Outlook (as of 17 Nov 2025): Bearish. The market turned even weaker today and the short-term outlook is further downgraded to bearish.

Breadth Outlook (as of 17 Nov 2025): Bearish. Breadth is bearish and given the weakness permeating the short-term components of the model, this may be significant.

Volatility Outlook (as of 17 Nov 2025): Shaky. The volatility outlook has dropped back down to shaky. This is a negative reading and if it persists for a while, a significant sell-off becomes more likely.

GDR Model Position

Following consecutive days of notable weakness in the market, the GDR Model has increased its short position.