S&P 500 Daily Perspective for Thu 13 Nov 2025

GDR Model Performance

Please see the Performance page for more detailed performance numbers, how they’re calculated, and a chart.

For the fine print (a.k.a. the lawyer-approved stuff), don’t miss the Disclaimers section—it’s where all the “officially important” bits live!

GDR Model Outlook

Overall Outlook (as of 12 Nov 2025): MOSTLY BULLISH. The GDR Model has (mostly) flipped bullish. At this point the only component at odds with the rest of the model is breadth.

Fundamentals Outlook (as of 20 Oct 2025): Rich. The model has adjusted valuations slightly upward following the release of new data. Going forward GDR Model positioning should tactically tilt a little more towards the long side, all else equal. Note that this is just a barometer to help guide longer-term decision-making rather than short-term market timing.

IMPORTANT NOTE: it’s unknown what the impact of tariffs on valuations (or what the ultimate level of the tariffs themselves) will actually be on valuations. Rather than make tariff-related assumptions to adjust the model accordingly, the Fundamentals Outlook will remain fully data-driven as it’s always been. All other portions of the model are entirely unaffected.

Long-Term Outlook (as of 7 Nov 2025): Bullish. The long-term outlook improved again this week and has now improved to bullish. It is notable that the long-term outlook seems to be at odds with short-term and breadth, and this may well suggest buy and hold interest popping up in the market.

Short-Term Outlook (as of 12 Nov 2025): Bullish. The short-term outlook showed yet another strong close today and has improved to bullish.

Breadth Outlook (as of 12 Nov 2025): Neutral. Breadth has recently improved to neutral, which is supportive of the recent strength coming up in the market. It came within a hair’s breadth of being upgraded to bullish today…

Volatility Outlook (as of 12 Nov 2025): Calm. The volatility outlook has been upgraded to calm. This is the least volatile state for the markets, which typically underpins bullish rallies.

GDR Model Position

Given the sustained strength in the markets as of late, the GDR Model has opened a significant long position. The model sees favorable odds of further upside at this point.