S&P 500 Daily Perspective for Tue 25 Jul 2023

Still in short-term balance, likely to break soon

Jul 24, 2023

GDR Model Performance

This year has been challenging for the GDR Model’s style due to low confidence in the market.

GDR Model Outlook

The GDR Model is bullish. Unless volatility starts to pick up this week, I’ll disregard the recent volatility outlook downgrade from Calm to Stable as it can mostly chalked up to monthly options expiration last Friday.

GDR Model Position

After a short break, the GDR Model is back to its long position as its outlook remains bullish across the board. This is a fairly bold position given all the critical data releases coming this week.

S&P 500 Futures Market Profile Analysis

Near-Term Outlook: still in short-term balance, could go either way

Alternate Outlook: N/A

Key Levels

Bullish: 4594 (7/20 Excess High, Weak High, Top of Short-Term Balance), 4609 (7/19 Swing High), 4631 (March 2022 High)
Bearish: 4581 (Halfback), 4564 (7/21 Poor Low), 4557 (7/20 Low, No Material Excess, Bottom of Short-Term Balance)

Market Narrative

Despite the market closing higher today, it did not break out of the current short-term balance. Therefore, nothing much as changed compared with yesterday’s narrative and outlook. The market is in short-term balance with edges on Thursday’s high and low. Balance trading guidelines apply once again going into today.

Today we’re more likely to see at least an attempt to break from balance as the first few key data releases come out. Of course the most important one this week is likely to be the Fed rate decision and press conference on Wednesday afternoon.

Economic Calendar

9:00am - S&P/CS Home Price Index Composite
10:00am - CB Consumer Confidence
Earnings After the Close: MSFT -1.37%↓, GOOGL -0.50%↓, V -0.42%↓
Later this Week: Fed Interest Rate Decision (Wed), META -3.03%↓ Earnings (Wed), GDP (Thu), PCE (Fri), XOM -0.05%↓ Earnings (Fri)