S&P 500 Daily Perspective for Wed 27 Aug 2025

GDR Model Performance

Please see the Performance page for more detailed performance numbers, how they’re calculated, and a chart.

For the fine print (a.k.a. the lawyer-approved stuff), don’t miss the Disclaimers section—it’s where all the “officially important” bits live!

GDR Model Outlook

Overall Outlook (as of 26 Aug 2025): NEUTRAL TO BULLISH. The GDR Model is picking up on plenty of indecision in the market, but there was notable strength to close last week. For that strength to be meaningful, it will need to be sustained rather than just a one-off.

Fundamentals Outlook (as of 25 Aug 2025): Fair Value/Rich. The model has adjusted valuations slightly downward following the release of new data. Going forward GDR Model positioning should tactically tilt a little less towards the long side, all else equal. Note that this is just a barometer to help guide longer-term decision-making rather than short-term market timing.

IMPORTANT NOTE: it’s unknown what the impact of tariffs on valuations (or what the ultimate level of the tariffs themselves) will actually be on valuations. Rather than make tariff-related assumptions to adjust the model accordingly, the Fundamentals Outlook will remain fully data-driven as it’s always been. All other portions of the model are entirely unaffected.

Long-Term Outlook (as of 22 Aug 2025): Bearish. The long-term outlook remains bearish but posted an unusually strong close to the week. The GDR Model is designed not to overreact, but the strength from Friday is sustained then a quick reversal in outlook could be in the cards… Time will tell.

Short-Term Outlook (as of 26 Aug 2025): Bullish. The market closed in bullish territory for the third day in a row, but has weakened materially from last Friday. If I had to guess, the market is most likely to return to indecision this week...

Breadth Outlook (as of 26 Aug 2025): Bullish. Breadth is bullish, and that would become meaningful in a scenario where the rest of the model is pointing in the same direction. For now this is just something to be aware of.

Volatility Outlook (as of 26 Aug 2025): Calm. The volatility outlook is in calm waters, which may get in the way of any serious sell-offs and may even lift prices higher, if sustained.

GDR Model Position

The GDR Model will likely keep its mostly flat position for as long as it detects indecision in the markets. If recent strength is sustained then the model will almost certainly open a long position.