S&P 500 Daily Perspective for Tue 20 May 2025

GDR Model Performance

Please see the Performance page for more detailed performance numbers, how they’re calculated, and a chart.

For the fine print (a.k.a. the lawyer-approved stuff), don’t miss the Disclaimers section—it’s where all the “officially important” bits live!

GDR Model Outlook

Overall Outlook (as of 19 May 2025): BULLISH. The market has all but recovered, and the GDR Model is bullish across the board.

Fundamentals Outlook (as of 27 Mar 2025): Fair Value. The model has adjusted valuations upward following the release of new data. Going forward GDR Model positioning should tactically tilt more towards the long side, all else equal. Note that this is just a barometer to help guide longer-term decision-making rather than short-term market timing.

IMPORTANT NOTE REGARDING THE FUNDAMENTALS OUTLOOK: given the magnitude of the likely economic impact from the tariffs implemented by the US administration, and that the data that goes into this portion of the model comes with a delay, this part of the model is most likely inaccurate for the foreseeable future. I will keep updating it as usual, but please be aware of this. All other portions of the model are entirely unaffected.

Long-Term Outlook (as of 16 May 2025): Bullish. The long-term outlook has finally joined the rest of the model in turning bullish. This is undeniably a strong market.

Short-Term Outlook (as of 19 May 2025): Bullish. The market has been broadly strong for many consecutive days now.

Breadth Outlook (as of 19 May 2025): Bullish. Back in line with the rest of the model it reinforces the current strength in the market.

Volatility Outlook (as of 19 May 2025): Calm. Any concerns on the volatility side have likely dissipated at this point. As long as volatility remains calm or stable, the market will probably continue to drift upwards, though that doesn’t preclude the occasional liquidation.

GDR Model Position

The GDR Model is carrying a significant long position. As the market remains strong and volatility suppressed, the GDR Model continues to see increased odds of further upside.