S&P 500 Daily Perspective for Thu 26 June 2025

GDR Model Performance

Please see the Performance page for more detailed performance numbers, how they’re calculated, and a chart.

For the fine print (a.k.a. the lawyer-approved stuff), don’t miss the Disclaimers section—it’s where all the “officially important” bits live!

GDR Model Outlook

Overall Outlook (as of 25 Jun 2025): BULLISH. The market is now breaking out to the upside.

Fundamentals Outlook (as of 23 Jun 2025): Fair Value/Rich. The model has adjusted valuations slightly downward following the release of new data. Going forward GDR Model positioning should tactically tilt a little less towards the long side, all else equal. Note that this is just a barometer to help guide longer-term decision-making rather than short-term market timing.

IMPORTANT NOTE: it’s unknown what the impact of tariffs on valuations (or what the ultimate level of the tariffs themselves) will actually be on valuations. Rather than make tariff-related assumptions to adjust the model accordingly, the Fundamentals Outlook will remain fully data-driven as it’s always been. All other portions of the model are entirely unaffected.

Long-Term Outlook (as of 20 Jun 2025): Bullish. The market remains strong from a long-term perspective, but last week barely closed on a strong note.

Short-Term Outlook (as of 25 Jun 2025): Bullish. The short-term outlook remains but had a weak close. Still no reason for alarm, but the intermittent weakness that we’ve been seeing lately is unusual.

Breadth Outlook (as of 25 Jun 2025): Bullish. Breadth is once again lining up with the rest of the model’s components on the bullish side.

Volatility Outlook (as of 25 Jun 2025): Stable. The volatility outlook has returned back up to stable. If it remains stable or calm, the market is more likely to continue drifting upwards while at the same time meaningful sell-offs are unlikely.

GDR Model Position

At the recent sign of strength, the GDR Model has opted to recently reopen an aggressive long position…