S&P 500 Daily Perspective for Fri 13 Feb 2026

GDR Model Performance

Please see the Performance page for more detailed performance numbers, how they’re calculated, and a chart.

For the fine print (a.k.a. the lawyer-approved stuff), don’t miss the Disclaimers section—it’s where all the “officially important” bits live!

GDR Model Outlook

Overall Outlook (as of 12 Feb 2026): NEUTRAL TO BULLISH. The model has shown a marked worsening in market conditions. The CPI data release tomorrow could be crucial.

Fundamentals Outlook (as of 24 Dec 2025): Fair Value/Rich. The model has adjusted valuations slightly upward following the release of new data. Going forward GDR Model positioning should tactically tilt a little more towards the long side, all else equal. Note that this is just a barometer to help guide longer-term decision-making rather than short-term market timing.

Long-Term Outlook (as of 6 Feb 2026): Bullish. The market closed the week strong and remains bullish.

Short-Term Outlook (as of 12 Feb 2026): Bullish. The market is bullish on the short-term timeframe, but ended the day slightly weak. Tomorrow’s reaction to CPI will likely be key.

Breadth Outlook (as of 12 Feb 2026): Bearish. Following a noticeable improvement over Monday and Tuesday, breadth has crashed back into bearish territory and remains there. As before, this is something to keep an eye on and carry forward…

Volatility Outlook (as of 12 Feb 2026): Shaky. Volatility deteriorated with today’s drop in the market. This opens the gates for both sharper sell-offs but also for strong short-covering rallies.

GDR Model Position

The market showed enough re-strengthening of late for the GDR Model to carry a meaningful long position.