S&P 500 Daily Perspective for Tue 27 Jun 2023

Value has continued to build lower with no sign of a turnaround yet

Roger

Jun 27, 2023

GDR Model Performance

This year has been challenging for the GDR Model’s style due to low confidence in the market.

GDR Model Outlook

The GDR Model is now neutral on balance following some deterioration in the market since last week.

GDR Model Position

The GDR Model closed its long position as the market showed some deterioration last week.

S&P 500 Futures Market Profile Analysis

Near-Term Outlook: at balance zone low, monitor for continuation

Alternate Outlook: N/A

Key Levels

Bullish: 4378 (Bottom of Current Balance Zone), 4403 (Excess High), 4431 (6/21 Excess High)
Bearish: 4368 (Weak Low), 4351 (6/12 Poor Low), 4325 (Closes ES Contract Rollover Gap)

Market Narrative

Yesterday’s trade was again identical to that of the last several trading days: an open that is near or below the low of the previous day’s range, followed by a deceiving rally. The key these days has been to focus on value, which has consistently continued to build and trend lower sustaining the recent bearish trend. The market is now at the low of the current balance zone and monitoring for continuation will be key in discerning whether short trades will continue to be profitable.

Should the market find acceptance below the balance zone there are good odds it will continue to trade down to close the ES contract rollover gap from 6/12 at around 4325. On the other hand, if a breakdown is rejected then revisiting the top of the balance zone at 4470 becomes the next logical target.

Economic Calendar

8:00am - Building Permits
8:30am - Durable Goods Orders
9:00am - S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index
10:00am - CB Consumer Confidence, New Home Sales
Next Week: Fed Chair Powell Speaks (Wed), Fed Chair Powell Speaks (Thu), PCE (Fri)