S&P 500 Daily Perspective for Tue 6 May 2025

GDR Model Performance

Please see the Performance page for more detailed performance numbers, how they’re calculated, and a chart.

For the fine print (a.k.a. the lawyer-approved stuff), don’t miss the Disclaimers section—it’s where all the “officially important” bits live!

GDR Model Outlook

Overall Outlook (as of 2 May 2025): BULLISH TO NEUTRAL. The market seems to be well along on its recovery as volatility continues to wane.

Fundamentals Outlook (as of 27 Mar 2025): Fair Value. The model has adjusted valuations upward following the release of new data. Going forward GDR Model positioning should tactically tilt more towards the long side, all else equal. Note that this is just a barometer to help guide longer-term decision-making rather than short-term market timing.

IMPORTANT NOTE REGARDING THE FUNDAMENTALS OUTLOOK: given the magnitude of the likely economic impact from the tariffs implemented by the US administration, and that the data that goes into this portion of the model comes with a delay, this part of the model is most likely inaccurate for the foreseeable future. I will keep updating it as usual, but please be aware of this. All other portions of the model are entirely unaffected.

Long-Term Outlook (as of 2 May 2025): Neutral. The weakness from earlier in the year seems to be giving way to renewed strength in the market.

Short-Term Outlook (as of 5 May 2025): Bullish. The market has been broadly strong. Notably this is the kind of strength that has been largely absent since at least February and it’s now been sustained long enough that it could mark the start of a bonafide recovery.

Breadth Outlook (as of 5 May 2025): Bullish. The model is steadily flipping bullish component by component so this bullish reading is slowly taking on more importance.

Volatility Outlook (as of 5 May 2025): Stable. A recovery seems to well under way as the volatility outlook has maintained a reading of stable for a number of days now.

GDR Model Position

The GDR Model is mostly bullish overall, however as it sees lower odds of further upside in the near-term, it’s opting to take some profits for now. This is likely just a temporary tactical adjustment, and if the markets maintains its recent strength I’d expect the model to add to its long position again soon.