S&P 500 Daily Perspective for Mon 23 Feb 2026

GDR Model Performance

Please see the Performance page for more detailed performance numbers, how they’re calculated, and a chart.

For the fine print (a.k.a. the lawyer-approved stuff), don’t miss the Disclaimers section—it’s where all the “officially important” bits live!

GDR Model Outlook

Overall Outlook (as of 20 Feb 2026): MOSTLY BULLISH. Market conditions have improved enough that the model is close to fully bullish. Let’s see if we finally get the swing upward the model has been expecting since December…

Fundamentals Outlook (as of 24 Dec 2025): Fair Value/Rich. The model has adjusted valuations slightly upward following the release of new data. Going forward GDR Model positioning should tactically tilt a little more towards the long side, all else equal. Note that this is just a barometer to help guide longer-term decision-making rather than short-term market timing.

Long-Term Outlook (as of 20 Feb 2026): Bullish. The market closed the week strong and remains bullish.

Short-Term Outlook (as of 20 Feb 2026): Bullish. The market is bullish on the short-term timeframe.

Breadth Outlook (as of 20 Feb 2026): Neutral. Back to neutral… Breadth has been in a real back-and-forth lately, but notably it has been nearly a month since it was last bullish…

Volatility Outlook (as of 20 Feb 2026): Stable. Volatility has (finally?) improved back to positive territory. If it remains stable or better, the odds increase of a drift upward in the market.

GDR Model Position

The market has showed enough re-strengthening of late for the GDR Model to carry a meaningful long position.