S&P 500 Daily Perspective for Thu 11 Sep 2025
GDR Model Performance
Please see the Performance page for more detailed performance numbers, how they’re calculated, and a chart.
For the fine print (a.k.a. the lawyer-approved stuff), don’t miss the Disclaimers section—it’s where all the “officially important” bits live!
GDR Model Outlook
Overall Outlook (as of 10 Sep 2025): BULLISH. The GDR Model has been picking up on notable strength in the market for a while now and it’s now fully bullish.
Fundamentals Outlook (as of 28 Aug 2025): Fair Value/Rich. The model has adjusted valuations slightly upward following the release of new data. Going forward GDR Model positioning should tactically tilt a little more towards the long side, all else equal. Note that this is just a barometer to help guide longer-term decision-making rather than short-term market timing.
IMPORTANT NOTE: it’s unknown what the impact of tariffs on valuations (or what the ultimate level of the tariffs themselves) will actually be on valuations. Rather than make tariff-related assumptions to adjust the model accordingly, the Fundamentals Outlook will remain fully data-driven as it’s always been. All other portions of the model are entirely unaffected.
Long-Term Outlook (as of 5 Sep 2025): Bullish. The long-term outlook has been upgraded to bullish as the market has shown consistent and persistent strength for some time now. At this point I’d say it’s confirmed that the sell-off warning from two or three months ago was a false alarm.
Short-Term Outlook (as of 10 Sep 2025): Bullish. The market was a bit stronger today and ended the day bullish.
Breadth Outlook (as of 10 Sep 2025): Bullish. The bullish alignment across all of the model’s components makes this a meaningful data point.
Volatility Outlook (as of 10 Sep 2025): Calm. The volatility outlook is in calm waters, which, while sustained, will likely help protect against serious sell-offs and lift prices higher.
GDR Model Position
The market has been showing consistent strength for a while. As such, the GDR Model is carrying a meaningful long position.
