S&P 500 Daily Perspective for Fri 7 Nov 2025
GDR Model Performance
Please see the Performance page for more detailed performance numbers, how they’re calculated, and a chart.
For the fine print (a.k.a. the lawyer-approved stuff), don’t miss the Disclaimers section—it’s where all the “officially important” bits live!
GDR Model Outlook
Overall Outlook (as of 6 Nov 2025): NEUTRAL TO BEARISH. The GDR Model is pointing to more crosswinds in the market, but lately the weakness seems to be more persistent…
Fundamentals Outlook (as of 20 Oct 2025): Rich. The model has adjusted valuations slightly upward following the release of new data. Going forward GDR Model positioning should tactically tilt a little more towards the long side, all else equal. Note that this is just a barometer to help guide longer-term decision-making rather than short-term market timing.
IMPORTANT NOTE: it’s unknown what the impact of tariffs on valuations (or what the ultimate level of the tariffs themselves) will actually be on valuations. Rather than make tariff-related assumptions to adjust the model accordingly, the Fundamentals Outlook will remain fully data-driven as it’s always been. All other portions of the model are entirely unaffected.
Long-Term Outlook (as of 31 Oct 2025): Neutral. The long-term outlook improved again this week, though still not enough for an upgrade. It is notable that the long-term outlook seems to be at odds with short-term and breadth.
Short-Term Outlook (as of 6 Nov 2025): Bearish. The market returned to weakness today, and the short-term outlook remains squarely bearish. There has been persistent weakness for a while now.
Breadth Outlook (as of 6 Nov 2025): Bearish. Breadth remains bearish and supports the idea of a weak market over the last few days.
Volatility Outlook (as of 6 Nov 2025): Stable. The volatility outlook at stable should still do reasonably well at holding the market together. However, if this part of the model keeps deteriorating a deeper sell-off becomes more likely.
GDR Model Position
Given the persistent weakness in the market, the GDR Model remains slightly short/flat the market.
