S&P 500 Daily Perspective for Wed 29 Jan 2025

GDR Model Performance

Please see the Performance page for more detailed performance numbers, how they’re calculated, and a chart.

For the fine print (a.k.a. the lawyer-approved stuff), don’t miss the Disclaimers section—it’s where all the “officially important” bits live!

GDR Model Outlook

The GDR Model is bullish. The recent indecision in the markets seems to be pretty much gone.

Fundamentals Outlook (as of 17 Jun 2024): for the first time in a while the model is showing stocks as being richly valued (i.e. overpriced). Note that this is just a barometer to help guide longer-term decision-making rather than short-term market timing.

Long-Term Outlook (as of 24 Jan 2025): the long-term outlook is upgraded to bullish. This is the final confirmation that the recent market uncertainty seems to be gone, at least for now…

Short-Term Outlook (as of 28 Jan 2025): despite the large decline in price on Monday, the short-term outlook has yet to even come close to any levels that suggest bearishness. This surprised even me, but process is process and there is still notable strength in the market

Breadth Outlook (as of 28 Jan 2025): breadth is neutral. It’s just an observation for now, it doesn’t change the overall outlook.

Volatility Outlook (as of 28 Jan 2025): the volatility outlook improved a bit today. It’s solidly in stable and still has a bit to go before an upgrade (or downgrade). Currently the odds that the market will pick itself back up remain high, though they can obviously change, especially with a Fed day coming tomorrow.

GDR Model Position

The GDR Model is 3x long as the market continues to show strength.