S&P 500 Daily Perspective for Fri 4 Apr 2025

GDR Model Performance

Please see the Performance page for more detailed performance numbers, how they’re calculated, and a chart.

For the fine print (a.k.a. the lawyer-approved stuff), don’t miss the Disclaimers section—it’s where all the “officially important” bits live!

GDR Model Outlook

Overall Outlook (as of 2 Apr 2025): BEARISH. The serious sell-off the model had been pointing towards for weeks is now well underway. The model’s components have aligned on the bearish side yet again. There is wide uncertainty as to how the market will react tomorrow follow the US’s tariffs announcement after the market close.

Fundamentals Outlook (as of 27 Mar 2025): Fair Value. The model has adjusted valuations upward following the release of new data. Going forward GDR Model positioning should tactically tilt more towards the long side, all else equal. Note that this is just a barometer to help guide longer-term decision-making rather than short-term market timing.

Long-Term Outlook (as of 28 Mar 2025): Bearish. There has been persistent weakness over the long-term timeframe and the market is unlikely to fully recover until this weakness gives way to renewed strength.

Short-Term Outlook (as of 3 Apr 2025): Bearish. The market is showing weakness across the board.

Breadth Outlook (as of 3 Apr 2025): Bearish. This is meaningful given that the model is in agreement throughout its components.

Volatility Outlook (as of 3 Apr 2025): Shaky. It looks like the recent market indecision is over as the volatility outlook has decisively deteriorated. As a reminder, a shaky outlook (or worse) allows for a material sell-off to happen (along with nasty short-covering rallies). On the other hand, should the outlook return to stable (or better) then the path would be open for the market to recover at least for a while.

GDR Model Position

The GDR Model has a modest long position. Note that despite this, the model certainly doesn’t see the market as nearly strong enough to warrant a substantial long position.